Detail View

Explanation

Use this window to view all the models and parameters required for working in IFS/Demand Plan. The window is organized into several tabs:

Forecast Model Tab

This tab has all fields associated with how the system computes the forecast, note that only the relevant forecast model parameters for the selected model will be shown, available fields in this tab are:

Scenario: Here you can alternate between the different scenarios that exist in this period. The main (0) scenario is always present, the other scenarios are named scenario 1, scenario 2 and so on. Note that all scenarios created other than main will be deleted during the next create forecast job.

Forecast Model:

The system provides different forecast models:

Manual   The value entered in Manual Yearly is spread out evenly through the year.
Moving Average   Sets all the periods of the forecast equal to the average of historical demand. The average is based on the number of most recent periods entered in the Moving Average Periods.
EWMA Level   Exponential Weighted Moving Average.
EWMA Level and Trend   Exponential smoothing model with trend enhancement.
Naive Also referred to as Random Walk. The sales of the next period is equal to the previous period.
AEWMA AEWMA is the Adaptive Exponential Weighted Moving Average.
Least Square The least squares fitting line. This is the line that minimizes the sum of squared errors.
Best fit Finds the forecasted model that best explains the historical pattern of the above models.
Browns Level And Trend Exponential smoothing model with trend enhancement, with a single smoothing constant.
Croston Intermittent Croston's intermittent model used for slow moving parts.
Multiple Regression Forecast model uses one or more explanation variables to compute the forecast.
Bayesian This is a good all-round forecast model, when you don't have the skill or you don't have the time to tune some of the other models, then this model is a good choice. A good/robust default forecast model.
Life Cycle This model is used to forecast the phase in and/or the phase out parts of a parts life cycle. If the part is used in between these phases it will be like a EWMA Level Model.
Rule Based This model is capable of automatically applying different forecasting models, such as Manual, Moving Average and Bayesian for Forecast Part/Group/Query based on number of historical data periods available.
ML Weather This forecast model is a short term model (1-14 days) it provides a time-series forecasting model based on weather data and non-linear regression with high flexibility to fit any data without pre-assumptions about actual data patterns. The model uses an external weather provider to collect historical weather data to train the model and forecast conditions to predict the demand 14 days ahead. Each model represents a distinct part where the weather data is based on a geographical location where the part is used/consumed, this location is connected to the base flow in Demand Planning.

A detailed description of the models can be found in Forecast Models.

Alpha: An exponential smoothing constant for Level that determines how much emphasis will be given to recent demand data. It is used in the EWMA Level and EWMA Level and Trend models. A high alpha value gives more weightage to recent demand data, and so providing a more responsive forecast model that becomes unstable in the presence of randomness. Low values spread the weight over older demand data and result in more stable forecasts. Values between 0.01 and 0.3 are recommended under normal circumstances. High values should not be used except under close supervision. Values for alpha must be in the range 0.0-1.0. This field are only shown when selecting forecast models EWMA Level, EWMA Level and Trend, AEWMA, Browns Level and Trend, Croston Intermittent or Life Cycle.

Beta: An exponential smoothing constant for Trend that determines how much emphasis will be given to recent trend factors. It is used in the forecast model EWMA Level and Trend. A high value for beta gives more weight to recent trend factors and produces a forecast model that responds faster to changes in trends but is unstable in the presence of randomness. Values must be in the range 0.0-1.0. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model EWMA Level and Trend or AEWMA.

Rho: A trend reduction constant. The trend factor in the EWMA Level and Trend forecast model is multiplied by this constant for each period in the forecast horizon. With Rho set to 1, the trend continues indefinitely into the forecast horizon. Values between 0.75 and 1.00 are recommended. Values must be in the range 0.0-1.0. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model EWMA Level and Trend, Browns Level and Trend, Least Square, Best Fit or Bayesian.

Moving Average Periods: The number of periods of historical demand used to find the arithmetic average in the Moving Average forecast model. This field is available only when this forecast model is selected. A detailed description of the Moving Average forecast model can be found in Forecast Models. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model Moving Average.

Season Profile: Combo box for selecting the user-created seasonal profile for demand that is to be used for the current Part No, or aggregated group. Season Profiles may be used in combination with any of the forecast models, except the Naive model. A detailed description of profiles can be found in Season Indexes. Note that the automatic season profile will use the system season profile for the part, if the part has passed the seasonal component test. See Season Indexes help file for further explanation. The icon in front of the selection field determines if the profile should be inherited or not, if you push the button in you turn inheritance on. The profile set in the field on the part level will then be set based how the inheritance tree is defined for the flow/part. Another click on the button will turn inheritance off, the profile on the part will be kept. On group level this button turns on (creates an inheritance rule for the group level) and off inheritance (deletes the inheritance rule from the group level) from the group level you are standing on. See (Inheritance Rules and About Inheritance Rules). When you hover the mouse cursor over an profile field that is inherited, you will get a tooltip with where (the source) of the inherited value. This field are shown when selecting all forecast models accept Naive and Multiple Regression.

The DNA icon before the Season Profile, Period Profile, Weekly Profile and Movable Holiday indicates if inheritance rules is set to be on or off for that field. To switch state simply click on the icon.

Manual Yearly: The manually-entered yearly demand used in the Manual forecast model. Manual Yearly is always expressed in standard units, regardless of the selection made in Select Unit. This field is available only when the Manual forecast model is selected. A detailed description of the Manual Yearly forecast model can be found in Forecast Models. This field is always showed in standard units always, it is not aggregated when displayed on group level but its a number stored on the group part. E.g. the number does not affect the manual yearly on the base flow parts. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model Manual.

Period Profile: Como box for selecting the user-defined period profile that is to be used of this part or group. A period profile defines how the daily forecast is distributed over the length of the period, it might be that the first 5 days of the period stands for 25% of the total sales within the period.  Period profiles may be used with any of the forecast models. A detailed description can be found in Period Profile. This field is disenabled when you have weekly period version as the Demand Plan Servers main period version. When other period versions are used you can combine a profile for the entire forecast period and a weekly profile to form the resulting daily forecast. There is a Advance Server setting that prevents the period profile to be applied to the full forecast horizon see Advance Server Settings the default settings is set to 3, this means that the period profile only will be applied to the 3 first periods of the forecast to save computing time and memory requirements on the Demand Plan Server. This field is disenabled when a Market Segment part is selected. The icon in front of the selection field determines if the profile should be inherited or not, if you push the button in you turn inheritance on. The profile set in the field on the part level will then be set based how the inheritance tree is defined for the flow/part. Another click on the button will turn inheritance off, the profile on the part will be kept. On group level this button turns on (creates an inheritance rule for the group level) and off inheritance (deletes the inheritance rule from the group level) from the group level you are standing on. See (Inheritance Rules and About Inheritance Rules). When you hover the mouse cursor over an profile field that is inherited, you will get a tooltip with where (the source) of the inherited value. This field are shown when for all forecast models, the field is not available if the DP Server is using weeks as the period version.

Weekly Profile: Como box for selecting the user-defined weekly profile that is to be used of this part or group. A week profile defines how the sales is distributed over a calendar week, it might be that Mondays only sells 8% of the total sales of the week, while a Saturday sells 30% of the total weekly sales. Weekly profiles may be used with any of the forecast models. A detailed description can be found in Weekly Profile. There is a Advance Server Setting that prevents the weekly profile to be applied to the full forecast horizon see Advance Server Settings the default settings is set to 3, this means that the period profile only will be applied to the 3 first periods of the forecast to save computing time and memory requirements on the Demand Plan Server. This field is disenabled when a Market Segment part is selected. The icon in front of the selection field determines if the profile should be inherited or not, if you push the button in you turn inheritance on. The profile set in the field on the part level will then be set based how the inheritance tree is defined for the flow/part. Another click on the button will turn inheritance. off, the profile on the part will be kept. On group level this button turns on (creates an inheritance rule for the group level) and off inheritance (deletes the inheritance rule from the group level) from the group level you are standing on. See (Inheritance Rules and About Inheritance Rules). When you hover the mouse cursor over an profile field that is inherited, you will get a tooltip with where (the source) of the inherited value. This field are shown when for all forecast models.

Note: The Period Profile field decides the profile that is displayed in the Profile Graph and the Profile Table.

Movable Holiday: A list box for selecting the user-created movable holiday template for demand that is to be used for the current part number, or aggregated group. Movable holiday template may be used in combination with any of the forecast models. A detailed description about movable holiday can be found in Holiday Profile. The icon in front of the selection field determines if the profile should be inherited or not, if you click the button it turns inheritance on. The profile set in the field on the part level will then be set based how the inheritance tree is defined for the flow/part. Another click on the button will turn inheritance off, the profile on the part will be kept without any changes. On group level this button turns on (creates an inheritance rule for the group level) and off inheritance (deletes the inheritance rule from the group level) from the group level you are standing on. See (Inheritance Rules and About Inheritance Rules). When you hover the mouse cursor over a profile field that is inherited, you will get a tool tip with where it shows the source of the inherited rule. This field are shown when for all forecast models.

Holiday Mix Factor: The Holiday Mix Factor is a unique numeric value between 0 and 1 specific to a particular forecast part. The default value is set in the respective Demand Plan Server Setup Assistant dialog box and tab. This factor will decide how much of the parts unique index that should be used to forecast the holiday. Its a number between 0 and 1. If set to 1 then the parts unique holiday indexes are used to create forecast the parts holiday effect. The other extreme is a holiday mix factor of 0 then the Global index will be used to forecast the parts holiday effect. The Global index is the average holiday index of all parts using that particular holiday. This field are shown when for all forecast models

Parts in group:  Displays the number of items in the group when working on any group level. This field is shown with all forecast models.

Expected Demand Size: The expected demand value for the next period if demand occurs, and the field Inter Arrival Time is the average period limit between the demand periods, a result from the Croston's forecast model. This field is equal to the forecast for all models except Croston's forecast model. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model Croston Intermittent

Inter Arrival Time: This field is the expected average period time between demand occurrences, a result form the Croston's forecast model. This field is set to 1 for all other forecast models. This field are only shown when selecting the forecast model Croston Intermittent

Inheritance Tab

This tab has all fields associated with inheritance from other Inventory or Forecast parts, available fields in this tab are:

Inheritance: Used to turn on and off inheritance of historical demand data from the inventory part / forecast parts (chain) entered in the Predecessor field. Inheritance can be set up in the Demand Plan Client, Demand Forecast Client or on the Forecast Part from. You can also implement inheritance by using distributed adjustment. This field can be set on and off on combined flow part and on group level but nothing will happen to the combined part or group level until you copy the setting of the inheritance flag down to base flow part level then you will see the sum of the base flow parts inheritance results on the aggregated level see Copy Down.

Predecessor: The Part No from which the current part is to inherit historical demand. When this part is set from the Demand Plan Client / Demand Forecast from you can either use a drop down combo and select a part that already exists in the flow, or you can type in the part number manually (note there is no validation that the part exists in the database). The inheritance will also be preformed in a chain as long as all parts in the chain are forecast parts. This means that if Part A inherits Part B that in turn inherits Part C will lead to that Part A inherits both part B and C as long as they all are forecast parts. This field can also be defined in Forecast Part form. If you change the field in both places it will be the part number entered latest that will be the winner. It is a good approach on select one place that you do these changes.

Inheritance Start: The start date or period (if set in the Demand Plan Client or Demand Forecast form) from which historical data is to be inherited. This field can be set from the Demand Plan Client or Demand Forecast form but then only in whole periods not date as in the Forecast Part form in IFS Cloud, the date is also only displayed as a period in the Demand Plan Client and Demand Forecast form. If you change the field in both places it will be the inheritance Start entered latest that will be the winner. It is a good approach on select one place that you do these changes.

Inheritance End: The end date or period (if set in the Demand Plan Client or Demand Forecast form) to which historical data is to be inherited. This field can be set from the Demand Plan Client or Demand Forecast form but then only in whole periods not date as in the Forecast Part form in IFS Cloud, the date is also only displayed as a period in the Demand Plan Client and Demand Forecast form. If you change the field in both places it will be the Inheritance End entered latest that will be the winner. It is a good approach on select one place that you do these changes.

Life Cycle Tab

This tab has the fields associated defining Phase in and Phase out periods/Authorize Interval and the extra forecast model parameters for the Life Cycle Forecast Model Is found in this tab as well, available fields are:

Phase In Start: The phase in period for the part. The user is not allowed to set any forecast quantity for the part, before the period. E.g. If using monthly period version and phase in start is 2003-12, the user is not allowed to enter a forecast for the part in the periods before December 2003 (2003-12). See Authorize Intervals. Also used in the Life Cycle Model. See Forecast Models.

Phase In Length: Indicates the length of the phase in phase, the phase starts with the phase in Start period, used in the Life Cycle Model, this field is only visible if the Life Cycle model is set. See Forecast Models.

Phase Out Stop: The phase out period for the part. The user is not allowed to set any forecast quantity for the part, after the period. E.g. If using monthly period version and phase out date is 2004-12, the user is not allowed to enter a forecast for the part in the periods after December 2004 (2004-12). See Authorize Intervals. Also used in the Life Cycle Model.  See Forecast Models.

Phase Out Length: Indicates the length of the phase out phase, the phase ends with the phase Out Stop period, used in the Life Cycle Model, this field is only visible if the Life Cycle model is set. See Forecast Models.

Saturation Level: The part will reach this periodical sales when it has reached maturity, used in the Life Cycle Model, this field is only visible if the Life Cycle model is set. See Forecast Models.

Start Level: The sales quantity in the first sales period, used in the Life Cycle Model, this field is only visible if the Life Cycle model is set. See Forecast Models.

Forecast Info Tab

This tab has the fields associated forecasting, available fields are:

Lead Time: The current part's lead time. See Advanced Settings for details on how the lead time is retrieved.

Forecast From: The first period in the current forecast.

No of Forecast Periods: The number of periods in the current forecast.

Sum Forecast: The sum of all the period values of Adjusted Forecast in the current forecast. The unit depends on the choice made in Select Unit.

Forecast Changed By: The user who last changed this forecast part. This field is reset when a new forecast is created.

Inventory Unit: The current part's inventory unit.

Market Segment: The ID of the part's market segment. This can only be set in Forecast Part page.

IPR Usage: Tells what the forecasts is used for in the IPR Calculation. Values:

    None - Part not used in IPR.

    Demand Model - Forecast used as demand model in IPR.

    Safety Stock/MAE - Forecast accuracy used to compute safety stock on part.

    Dem. Mod. & SS/MAE - Demand model and forecast accuracy used to compute safety stock on part

    Croston Order Point - The result from croston is used to compute the order point.

Created Date: The date the part was created.

Units Tab

This tab shows all the different units connected to the part, available fields are:

Inventory Unit: The current part's inventory unit.

Inventory value: The current part's selected inventory value. The possible values are:

Planned Sales Price: The current part's planned sales price, this price is normally fetched from IFS/Costing. The system can also use other user defined functions to read this value, so the value does not necessarily need to come from costing. See Advance Server Settings for details of how to decide on this value and how to retrieve it.

Net Weight: The current part's weight. Read from inventory part.

Part flow value: This is a 'free' value field on the forecast part. This allows to individual values for a part on different flows.

Accuracy Tab

This tab includes all fields associated with the accuracy of the forecast, available fields are:

MAE: Mean absolute error, a widely used measure of forecast error magnitude. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level, this measure will be expressed in the same unit as what has been selected from the Select Unit combo. The lines used for the calculations are the ones shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at parts, then this number is always expressed in inventory units and the calculations are based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

Value of MAE: Mean absolute error in cost price. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements.

MAPE: Mean absolute percentage error. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. The calculation of MAPE is done on shown demand/forecast in the graph. If you are looking at parts (part level) in other units, then this number is always calculated based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

WMAPE: Weighted mean absolute percentage error. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. If you are looking at parts (part level) in other units, then this number is always calculated based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

MSE: Mean squared error. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. If you are looking at parts (part level) in other units, then this number is always calculated based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

Variance : This is the variance of the demand vector, detailed description of the measurement can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. If you are looking at parts (part level) in other units, then this number is always calculated based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

ME: Mean error. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level, this measure will be expressed in the same unit as the unit selected from the Select Unit combo. And the lines used for the calculations are the ones shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at parts, then this number is always expressed in inventory units. And the calculations are based on the real demand statistics (demand in inventory units).

RME: Relative Mean error. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. The calculation of RME is done on shown demand/forecast in the graph. If you are looking at parts (part level) then this number is always based on demand/forecast in inventory units.

PVE: Percentage variation explained. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. The calculation of PVE is done on shown demand/forecast in the graph. If you are looking at parts (part level) then this number is always based on demand/forecast in inventory units.

Delta: An exponential smoothing constant for the Tracking Signal. A detailed description of the tracking signal can be found in Forecast Measurements.

Tracking Signal: This error measure is the sum of errors divided by the sum of the absolute errors. Instead of using the sum, an exponential smoothing formula is used, employing Delta as the smoothing constant. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. The calculation of Tracking Signal is done on shown demand/forecast in the graph. If you are looking at parts (part level) then this number is always based on demand/forecast in inventory units.

Adjustment Factor: Tells how much better the your forecast (historical forecast) are compared to the mathematical forecast (explanation of forecast), 0=equally good, -10 your adjustment 10% poorer than the mathematics 10 you adjustment 10% better than the mathematics. A detailed description of forecast measurements can be found in Forecast Measurements. Note. When looking on group level,  the calculations are done on the lines shown in the forecast graph. If you are looking at the forecast in another unit (Select Unit) than inventory units. If you are looking at parts (part level) then this number is always based on demand/forecast in inventory units.

Performance Factor: This indicates how well the part is forecast compared to the variation of the parts historical sales. A performance factor > 1.0 indicates poor forecast performance, A performance factor < 1.0 indicates good performance, the closer to 0.0 the better. Performance Factor = MSE / Variance in Demand.

Service Level: Service Level denotes the percentage of days within the Forecast Error Periods that the product had been available for the customer. A detailed description of the forecast measurement can be found in Forecast Measurements.

Fill Rate Service: Fill Rate Service denotes the percentage of customers� demanded QTY satisfied by the entity within the �Forecast Error Periods�. This will be a ratio between QTY Delivered & Total QTY Demanded by customers, where user is able to get an idea about percentage of sales lost due to product unavailability. A detailed description of the forecast measurement can be found in Forecast Measurements.

Misc. Tab

This tab includes miscellaneous fields that did not fit in any of the above tabs, available fields are:

Season Correlation: This is the correlation between the parts seasonal profile and the part's 'real' seasonal pattern, when looking at the historical demand. A positive number indicates a positive correlation between the two seasons. This means that this parts season profile is a good match the higher the number the better the match. If the number is negative then the parts seasonal profile and its seasonal selling pattern is a mismatch. Correlation is a number between -1 and 1.

Confirmed Date: The date the part was confirmed, empty means that the part never was confirmed. This function can be used to filter out parts that are unconfirmed, or to only look at parts that has been checked after a certain number of periods. Can be useful during analysis of forecast accuracy etc.

Status: The parts/groups status, this can be set directly on the base flow part level. Its read only on combined flows and on group levels. To set it on these levels you have to use the copy down functionality. There following statuses exist :

  • Locked - this means that this part is only visible in the main Demand Plan Client or in IFS Cloud Demand Forecast client if published with full access.
  • Released - the part can now be reviewed in the IFS Cloud Demand Forecast Client, also when the part is published as Read Only, Collaborate or Evaluator.
  • Reviewed - the part has been reviewed in the IFS Cloud Demand Forecast Client.

Status Changed By: The user who changed the status last time. The field is reset after the create forecast job.

Status Changed Date: The time of the last status change.

Transaction Start Date: This is the date that Demand Planning will start to look for transactions/sale on the part is if it is set, any transactions before this date will not be aggregated. Set on the forecast part.

R Squared: This is the coefficient of determination, and this is the proportion of variance accounted for (explained) by the regression (when you are using the regression forecast model ) or by the explanatory variables when using the multiple regression model. When you are using any other forecast model this field is 0.0. This is a number between 0 and 1.0, this number describes the proportion of the variation explained by the regression. A detailed description of the calculations of B Bar Squared can be found in Forecast Measurements.

R Bar Squared: This is also often called adjusted R Squared, or adjusted R2. This is R Squared adjusted for the degrees of freedom. R Squared will always increase when you add another explanation variable, this figure  will increase only if the regression variable added give an increased explanation to the forecasted variable. If the added variable does not give an added value then the R Bar Squared number will be reduced. This number can also be negative. This number can be useful when doing stepwise regression (you are trying to build a regression out of many different explanation variables and are trying to find the most appropriate ones for the current forecasted part). When you are using any other forecast model this field is 0.0. A detailed description of the calculations of B Bar Squared can be found in Forecast Measurements.

Prerequisites

System Effects

Parameter on Forecast Part/Group is changed/set.