Select Demand Forecast Part
Explanation
From the result of you filter selection, you can then select the item that you want to work with simply by
clicking on the wanted item. The sort order of the filter can be decided by changing the Sort by field and
direction on the top of the part selector.
You can sort by all fields in the Detail View. In addition to the Detail
View fields you have these fields as well :
- Percent Adjusted/Budget, sums the Adjusted Forecast and budget numbers for all periods in the forecast range.
Then we divide ( sum Adjusted Forecast / Sum Budget ) * 100 this is the value shown in the part selector. If
Percent Adjusted/Budget is 100 it means that the Sum of the Adjusted Forecast and Budget in the Forecast Range is
exactly the same, when the Percent Adjusted/Budget is > 100 it means that the sum of the Adjusted Forecast is
bigger than the sum of the budget values. Thus a Percent Adjusted/Budget number bigger than 100 indicates that
the sum of the Budget numbers in the forecast horizon is bigger than the sum of the Adjusted Forecast
numbers.
- Percent Adjusted/Target Sales Plan, sums the adjusted forecast and Target Sakes Plan numbers for all periods
in the forecast range. ( Then we divide sum Adjusted Forecast / Sum Target Sales Plan ) * 100 this is the value
shown in the part selector.
- Percent Adjusted/Events, sums the Adjusted Forecast and absolute Event numbers for all periods in the
forecast range. Then we divide (sum Adjusted Forecast / Sum Abs Events) * 100 this is the value shown in the part
selector. The bigger the percentage number the larger is the sum of the Events compared to the sum of the
Adjusted forecast for the part.
- Percent Historical Forecast/Events, sums the Historical Forecast and Historical Event numbers in the set
Forecast Error Period range (see Enter General Server Data).
Then we divide (sum Historical Forecast / sum Events) this is the number shown in the part selector.
- Outlier factor, the part with the most recent and biggest outliner first, and so on. An outlier is a part
that has a demand period outside of 2 standard deviation, the further out side 2 standard derivations the higher
up in the list and the more recent the higher up in the list. The Outlier factor is calculated like this :
- For each period in Forecast Error Period Range (see Enter
General Server Data), staring with the most recent period and ending with the oldest period.
- Take the difference between the explanation forecast and the adjusted demand
- Compare this to the 2 x standard derivations (confidence interval) for the same period
- if the difference between the explanation forecast and adjusted demand is bigger than 2 standard
derivations then multiply the outlier factor for this period with 1.000.000
- Over the Forecast Error Period Range we run an EWMA smoothing process with alpha 0.25 (this can be
changed in Advanced Settings Settings/OutlinerSmoother)
Prerequisites
- The Demand Plan Server needs to be running.
- Forecast Parts needs to be published to the current users
- Filter Selection needs to be made
System Effects
The selected item will be shown in the Selected Workbench (Forecast or Seasonal Profile)