Forecast Graph

[To Demand Planning]

Usage

Use this window to view a graphical presentation of all the data elements of IFS/Demand Plan. The x-axis unit is time (periods) from the first period of historical data for the current item to the last period of the forecasting horizon. The choice of period unit (week, month or quarter) is done only once in the Period Version Setup. The y-axis unit can be either the standard unit for the current Part No (number) or the Cost Price (Select Unit). Note that there are two y-axes: the left one is used for all lines except the market segment line, which uses the right y-axis. The market segment line typically has much larger numbers and, thus, is best displayed separately. 

The y-axis is automatically scaled to fit the data presented. If the window is too small to fit all the data onto the x-axis, scrolling buttons are activated in the bottom left and right corners of the window. You can also scroll through the graph by dragging the x-axis scale in the desired direction. 

When right clicking and selecting the Period Comments from the drop down menu on a period in the graph you open the Period comment dialog on the closest period for adding a comment on that period. A period with a comment added is marked with a under line of the period label. You can also access the Period comment dialog by double clicking on the period in the x-axis.

A small padlock on the balls indicate that a manual adjustment has been done to the line, if the Adjusted demand and the Historical demand differs without a padlock this indicates that the period has been adjusted by the Demand Cleansing algorithm.

Apart from the Forecast Error and the Market Segment/Market Share data, the elements available in this graph are the same as for the Forecast Table:

Element	Color	Read/Write	Description
Demand		Read-only	The demand or usage figures from IFS Inventory.
Adjusted demand		Read-only	The demand data adjusted in order to provide the best possible basis for calculating forecasts, e.g., adjustments for removing outliers (such as unusually large or small data values and non-annual campaigns), entering data in zero sales periods (due to missing data), run-out situations, strikes, etc. Editing must be performed in the Forecast Table window, e.g., removing exceptionally large or small values and entering data for periods where data is missing.
Changed Adjustd Demand		Read-only	Adjusted demand that has been manualy changed by the user.
Inherited demand		Read-only	The demand for the item entered in the Predecessor field in Forecast Part page. Note that you also must define the start and end dates for the inheritance period. This functionality facilitates forecasting in situations where one part is phased out and its replacement phased in. When the Inheritance function is activated, the forecast model uses the sum of Adjusted Demand and Inherited Demand to calculate the forecast.
Historical forecast		Read-only	Before generating a new forecast at the start of a new period (month), the system saves the first forecast period as the current period's historical forecast, in the current forecast. It is also possible to take the parts lead time into account when storing the historical forecast see Advance Server Settings for details.
Budget		Read-only	The economical budget values may be entered in the Forecast Table window, at any level and compared with the bottom-up cost price forecasts.
Target sales plan		Read-only	The sales figures from the sales and marketing department. These must be entered or edited in the Forecast Table window.
Events		Write	Intended for special campaigns or sales when the events have a significant impact on the total usage or demand. Negative values are permitted. Historical event data may explain exceptions/irregularities in the demand data. You can work with event data directly in the graph or in the Forecast Table window. Note that you have individual events in the forecast horizon for each scenario. Only the events in the main scenario will be used as historical events. Note that periods with event adjustments will not be treated as fixed when copy rule From Previous adjusted is selected. The Event period adjusted forecast will be based on the new system forecast and then the event is added to form the new adjusted forecast for the period.
Unauthorized Events		Read-only	This is a period in the forecast horizon that is unauthorized, the events in this period is always 0. The users are not allowed to make any adjustments in these periods. These periods are defined by the phase in and phase out dates on forecast part. See Authorize Intervals.
Adjusted forecast		Write	Adjusted Forecast = System Forecast + Events + Campaigns, for the selected scenario (see Detail View). You can make changes to this element directly in the graph or in the Forecast Table window.
Changed/Locked Adjusted forecast		Write	Changed or locked adjusted forecast, will keep its value after the next periods create forecast job is ran, if you have selected the from previous adjusted in the copy rule of the DP Server see Demand Plan Server Setup
Unauthorized Adjusted forecast		Read-only	This is a period in the forecast horizon that is unauthorized, the adjusted forecast in this period is always 0. The users are not allowed to make any adjustments in these periods. These periods are defined by the phase in and phase out dates on forecast part. See Authorize Intervals.
System forecast		Read-only	A mathematical forecast based on the models and parameters selected in Detail View and calculated using the adjusted demand.
Collaborate forecast		Read-only	This is the collaborate forecast that you have made in the collaborate partner graph. If you have not removed any of the collaboration partners from then the collaborate forecast will be the average of the suggested forecast from all your collaboration partners.
Campaigns		Read-only	This is the sum of all campaign quantity on the part/group for the period, the campaign quantity will be distributed only on the campaign dates when the forecast is distributed to MS/MRP. But this shows the aggregated quantity.
Explanation forecast		Read-only	The Explanation Forecast displays the result of applying the Historical Forecast to a forecasting model selected from Detail View. It provides you with some insight on how the System Forecast is calculated.
Market segment		Read-only	The part's total market forecast, e.g. the total market demand for the current part or part family. This line is used to show how much of the total Market Segment this part is serving. The serving percentage is shown in the Market Share line in the Forecast Error Graph.
Qty Lost		Read-only	The part's sold out qty in the period. See Sold Out.
Start level		Write	The start level of the LifeCycle model, the sales/forecast of the phase in period. See forecast model and detail view for details
Saturation level		Write	The saturation level of the LifeCycle model, the level where the part reaches its adulthood/full potential. The forecast/sales of the phase in Stop period. See forecast model and detail view for details.
Phase out Start		Write	This marks the start of the phase out period in the LifeCycle model, the period where the forecast start the decline against 0. See forecast model and detail view for details.
Phase In Stop		Write	This marks the end of the phase in period in hte LifeCycel model, the period where the forecast/sales reaches the saturation level. See forecast model and detail view for details.
Phase In Start		Write	The phase in period, the first period where its allowed to enter a forecast on this part. See detail view.
Phase Out Stop		Write	The phase out period, the last period where there is allowed to enter a forecast value on this part. See detail view.

Forecast Error graph

The Forecast Graph can be split into two parts by dragging the horizontal bar between the legend and the right scrolling button (bottom right part of the window). If this bar is dragged all the way to the top of the window, the error graph will occupy the whole window in the same way as for the forecast graph. Activate the legend (described below) to select and to view any of the elements in the bottom part of the window. Remember that all forecast elements are shown in the same selected unit as in the forecast section of the graph. Several forecast error measurement elements and the Event element are made available here. Observe that the forecast error numbers in the graph is calculated from the beginning of history, while the forecast error numbers in detail view is calculated based on the Forecast Error Periods field specified in the Demand Plan Server Setup.

Note that this graph also has two y-axes: the left one is used for all lines except the market segment line, which uses the right y-axis. The market segment line typically has much larger numbers and, thus, is best displayed separately.

Element	Color	Read/Write	Description
Events		Write	Events represent special campaigns, sales, or promotions having a significant effect on demand. They are intended for special campaigns, sales, or any events which have a significant impact on the total usage or demand. Negative values are permitted. Historical event data may explain exceptions/irregularities in the demand data. You can work with event data directly in the graph or in the Forecast Table window.
Mean Abs. Error		Read-only	The average of all mean absolute forecast error occurrences.
Abs. Error		Read-only	Absolute Error.
Mean Abs. Perc. Error		Read-only	The average of all percentage forecast error occurrences.
Abs. Perc. Error		Read-only	Absolute Percentage Error.
Mean Error		Read-only	The average of all forecast error occurrences.
Error		Read-only	Demand - Forecast (in the selected unit).
Market share		Write	The current part's market share of the total Market Segment viewed in the Forecast Graph.

Although mainly for forecast error viewing, the Event element should be viewed in this part of the window if the magnitude of the events is different from the historical data or forecast, making it difficult to view these two in the same graph.

Legend

The legend is a vertical bar in the right side of the window. It can be maximized or minimized by using the appropriate buttons in the upper part of the legend area: and respectively. When maximized, use the legend to select the data elements that are to be presented in the graph, as well as to view the colors representing each element. This applies for both the forecast graph and the forecast error graph. In the forecast error graph the user may click on the descriptions of the elements to activate connected elements in one click.

Notes button

This presents the following information when you point at or drag one or several periodical data elements: the specific data element, the specific period, and the on-line value. A period comment added the period will be presented on the next line in the notes box, the period comment will disappear when you start manipulating the period.

Confidence Interval button

The Confidence Interval button displays the confidence intervals for the historical data. The dark gray area represents 1 standard deviation, while the lighter gray area represents 2 standard deviations. The confidence interval measures how well the matematical forecast is to forecast the underlying historical demand, if we take the lead time into account. The lead time on a part is in days this lead time is computed into periods in demand planning see Advance Server Settings under \Settings\LeadTimeMethod for details. For details on confidence intercal see Confidence Interval.

Graph adjustments

Data in Adjusted Forecast and Events may be altered directly in the graph by dragging the graph elements. The system displays the on-line value of the periodical elements as they are dragged if the Notes function is activated.

Changes to other elements of the Demand Plan (Adjusted Demand, Budget, and Target Sales Plan) may be done in the Forecast Table. Advanced graphical adjustments are made possible by using the Ctrl and Shift buttons when dragging:

Key	Name	Description
-	Single period	Drag an individual forecast element up or down directly in the graph to raise or lower the forecast value.
Shift	Straight line	Drag an index value to the right while holding the Shift key to arrange the elements in a straight line from the initial position of the period to where it was finally dropped.
Ctrl	Level	Hold the Ctrl key while dragging any forecast element up or down to raise or lower all elements of this type equally.
Shift+Ctrl	Free Draw	Hold the Shift+Ctrl key while dragging any forecast element up or down to draw a freeform line of forecasts.

Activity Diagrams

N/A

Activities

Demand Plan Work

Menu Choice	Activity
Copy as Bitmap	Copy the graph to the clipboard. After this command it is possible to paste the graph into e.g. mails, word.
Copy Down	Copy the forecast model to all parts in its group. Displays the Copy down dialog.
Event Cleansing	This menu selection has two options. Either Subtraction or Set to explanation forecast. The Subtraction selection subtracts adjusted demand line with the amount in the event line for all periods where events is different from 0. The Set to explanation forecast selection sets the adjusted demand equal to the explanation forecast line in all periods where the event is different from 0.
Smooth out history period	This menu selection will set the selected adjusted demand period equal to the explanation forecast. This will result in that the forecast model will not be influenced by the actual sales in this period, it will remove the outlier from the forecast calculation. The period influenced is determined by the period closest to the cursor when you right click in the graph to get the menu visible. Tip move the cursor on top of the period you want to change before right clicking then you are sure you get the right period. Can be useful in sold out and promotion situations.
Campaign	Opens the Campaigns dialog here you can make new and add parts to existing campaigns.
Period Comments	Opens the Period comments dialog.
System to adjusted	Copy the system forecast to the adjusted forecast.
Toggle PadLock	Toggles the PadLock on an of for the period, only avalible on autorized adjusted forecast periods. A period with a PadLock indicates that the period is manualy changed and values will be keept after next create forecast if copy rule is set to from previous adjusted.
Collaborate to adjusted	Copy the collaborate forecast to the adjusted forecast.
Adjusted to target sales plan	Copy adjusted forecast to the target sales plan.
Adjusted to budget	Copy adjusted forecast to budget.
Budget to Adjusted	Copy the Budget values to the Adjusted forecast.
Target Sales Plan to Adjusted	Copy the Target Sales Plan values to the Adjusted forecast.
Legend	Turn legend on/off.
Post it Notes	Turn post it notes on/off.
Confidence Interval	Turn Confidence interval on/off

Fields

N/A